THIS year’s US presidential election will go down in history as a gripping tale of high drama and epic struggle. On Tuesday, November 4 history will be made. If the trend holds, Barack Obama will become the first black president of the United States.

Obama’s rise in American politics is astounding and awesome. A first term senator at a young age of 47, he is poised to lead the most powerful nation in the world. His victory is not just a personal one. It represents the triumph of the black people, particularly in America who endured a long history of discrimination, oppression and marginalization.

The black people in America had gone a long, long way since the time slave traders captured their ancestors in Africa like animals and sold them like commodities in the slave markets in the New World. In America, they suffered maltreatment from the whites that considered them less human.

America had to endure a civil war just to give the black slaves their freedom. Ironically, it was the Republican and America’s most revered president, Abraham Lincoln who liberated the blacks from their miserable condition. Sadly, his party today had forgotten and ignored its glorious past.

Lincoln’s noble act of freeing the slaves failed to give them a descent and humane life. Though freed, the black people in America remained second-class citizens, and whites, particularly in the South instituted segregation. They maybe free but the blacks were not treated as equal.

Amidst the hostile environment, rose the Reverend Martin Luther King Jr. He led a mass movement for civil rights to exorcise the scourge of segregation in America and struggled for equality for the black people. His effort cost him his life, but his dream and vision for the black people remained. Eventually, segregation has been outlawed and reforms were made to make America a less racially hostile society.

Now, Obama burst into the scene, making it possible for a person of color to be president of the US. Victory is on his fingertips and barring any political cataclysm, will likely clinch the presidency on Tuesday. Should that happen, it is a capping victory for the black people, from the time their forefathers were captured in Africa, to Lincoln’s great emancipation effort and Rev. King’s struggle for equality.

Despite the sense of inevitability, lingering question remains if America as a whole is ready for a black president. Race is a sensitive matter and in the campaign both sides of the political divide as much as possible avoid to stray into this very volatile territory. Even pollsters tend to skirt the issue.

Is race or the color of one’s skin still a decisive factor in the election? Only 14 percent of America’s population is black while the whites constitute around 84 percent. Is majority of the whites ready to accept a black as a leader? The so-called “Bradley phenomenon” or the “Wilder effect” will be validated in the outcome of Tuesday’s election.

Douglas Wilder, a black, ran as governor of Virginia 20 years ago. Although he enjoyed a double-digit lead in the polls days before the election, he won by a very slim margin, becoming America’s first black governor. Tom Bradley, another black on the other hand, ran as governor of California in 1982. Although he enjoyed a substantial margin in the polls over his white opponent, he lost the election.

Both the “Bradley phenomenon” and the “Wilder effect” refer to the idea that white voters lie about their preferences to pollsters. When asked, whites hide their prejudice by indicating they will vote for a black candidate. But when they actually vote, they change their decision allowing their racial bias to overturn their decision.

Many fears Obama’s imminent victory will be foiled by both the “Wilder effect” and the “Bradley phenomenon.” Analysts linked both factors as the reason why the battle between Obama and McCain remains close on the eve of the election. True, Obama leads in the national polls but his lead varies from 4 – 10%.

With American people’s universal revulsion of the current Republican administration of George W. Bush, Jr., Obama should be enjoying a wide margin in the polls, 15-20% or higher. Despite Obama’s almost certain victory, pundits, pollsters, analysts and the media remain cautious in projecting the outcome of the election.

The world and the mood in America are for Obama. But the international community is waiting for his crowning with baited breath. Will the “Bradley phenomena” or the “Wilder effect” lose their validity and be proven as things of the past? Will America in general put its racial past behind and embrace a new future?

Change is the message Obama has been hammering all throughout the campaign. Is the majority of the Americans ready to embrace his message of change and hope? This and similar questions will be resolved and will have an answer on November 4.

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