OVER THE past few days, speculation over a Cabinet revamp has intensified, momentarily diverting public attention from an avalanche of bad news about the rice price crisis. It served the purpose of anesthesia to render the public insensitive to pain.

It, however, robbed President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo of a weapon of the shock effect of a Cabinet revamp to regain the initiative to turn the tide of her continuously plunging popularity rating. She has squandered this precious political asset by engaging the public in a striptease over “secrets” about who will go or stay in her next Cabinet. The only thing that appears certain is what she confirmed on Tuesday: a revamp is in the works.

This guessing game lifted only part of the fig leaf covering part of the strategic focus of public salivation, leaving the public more frustrated in their lust for gratification. It is a dangerous game to get hormones aroused. More skilled statesmen or women have manipulated public opinion to turn the tide in their favor by using the Cabinet revamp to inspire fresh hopes of new approaches unavailable from stale Cabinet faces.

The President thought she was being cute with reporters when she dropped in Camiguin on Monday piecemeal hints of who’s in or out of the list. Speculation over the past few days has centered on key Cabinet members, including Justice Secretary Raul Gonzalez, Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, Interior and Local Government Secretary Ronaldo Puno and Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita. These were names mentioned in press reports, but reporters pressed her to name a few names that were part of the “secret.” The rest were left in limbo.

“Gilbert is not part of the secret,” she said, adding that “civilian supremacy” in the military should be maintained. This appears to rule out outgoing Armed Forces Chief of Staff Gen. Hermogenes Esperon as Teodoro’s replacement at the defense department. Teodoro earlier indicated that he would step down in favor of Esperon. This left Esperon, who has been aspiring for the defense post, disappointed.

Teodoro was speculated to go to the Department of Justice to replace the ailing Gonzalez.

Back in Manila, on Wednesday, in response to reporters’ questions whether Gonzalez would be axed, Ms Arroyo said he was not part of the “secret.” She visited the justice department for a meeting with officials on the rice crisis. A Palace official had earlier told reporters, off the record, that at a recent Cabinet meeting, the President said, “If I have 10 more Raul Gonzalez, that will be half of the Cabinet.” That revealed the importance of loyalty as a criterion in Cabinet selection.

Aside from these names, the rest of the Cabinet have been kept guessing. Nothing has been specifically said by the President even about Ermita, Puno, Metropolitan Manila Development Authority Chair Bayani Fernando and Energy Secretary Angelo Reyes, except that Reyes has been singing since he was chief of staff of the Joseph Estrada administration. No, she said when asked whether Reyes, Fernando and some others were part of the “secret.”

The last time she was in a position to revamp her Cabinet to regain the initiative was shortly after she lost the mid-term Senate election to the opposition in 2004. The revamp was cosmetic. Old faces were retained, including Ermita, Gonzalez and Reyes.

Against the background of the rice crisis, the portfolios where there appears to be a demand for new faces to inspire public confidence that the government is taking fresh initiatives are defense, agriculture, interior, executive secretary, justice and finance. These are portfolios that have to be watched. The rice crisis requires bold approaches to ensure the administration’s survival against threats of public disorder arising from short supplies of cheap rice rations.

The President has not really said much. The vacuum has allowed Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago to come in with her own two cents’ worth that the revamp could unveil the administration’s senatorial candidates in the 2010 election, which is too far off the current rice crises to be relevant.

The President may yet pull a surprise with an extensive Cabinet shakeup. But this is not expected. Her “secret” list has left her Cabinet in turmoil.

Puno has told reporters that he was embarrassed by rumors that he would replace Ermita, who is reportedly being considered for appointment as ambassador to the United States. Puno said the revamp had not been discussed in Cabinet meetings. Fernando said he would rather finish his “mission” before being replaced.

The President’s “secret” revealed more about her style of crisis management and her phlegmatic response to crisis. A Cabinet revamp does not appear to be an effective measure to shock the government out of its lethargy in coping with the rice crisis. The response has been characterized by going back to the old solution of massive rice importation to meet current production shortfalls. A revamp is as ad hoc as importing rice. It would have been better if it had not been considered at all. It would have had an impact if it was carried out in one bold stroke.

The serializing of the “secret” list makes the planned revamp a dud. Given the human resource available in a lackluster and docile Cabinet, a revamp offers no hope for renewal. It is nothing better than recycling old tires.

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