IN THE THIRD pre-election survey conducted by two leading poll organizations since he announced his bid on Sept. 9 for the presidency in the May 2010 election, Sen. Benigno Aquino III has locked his position as the front-runner in a field of eight.

The latest of these surveys, conducted nationwide by Pulse Asia from Oct. 22 to 30, showed Aquino topping the poll with 44 percent of the vote. He led his closest rival, Sen. Manuel Villar, by a 2-to-1 margin. Villar polled 19 percent. The rest were struggling to stay in the race, with Sen. Francis Escudero getting 13 percent and former President Joseph Estrada garnering 11 percent, while the others got single-digit results, almost ruling them out of contention. The last group was composed of Vice President Noli de Castro, 4 percent; Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, 2 percent; Bayani Fernando, 1 percent; and evangelist “Brother” Eduardo Villanueva, 1 percent. The Pulse Asia survey effectively winnowed the short list to four serious contenders: Aquino, Villar, Estrada, Escudero or possibly Teodoro.

The survey results proved to be a nightmare for Villar, who had led the pack before Aquino declared his candidacy in September following the death of his mother, President Corazon Aquino. Aquino’s entry into the race is considered as the turning point of the 2010 presidential campaign; it drastically altered the political fortunes of all the presidential contenders, especially Villar.

Each time a survey was released during the past two months, the result has been traumatic for Villar, who found himself trying to shake off what seemed like a monkey on his back. The results showed Aquino consolidating his wide margin (50 percent and then 60 percent in two Social Weather Stations surveys in September).

Villar was hoping that the Aquino bubble would burst and that he could catch up with the leading contender. It never did. Three surveys later, Aquino appears to be the man to beat and Villar seems to have stuck his feet in a bed of quick-drying cement.

In the Pulse Asia survey, Aquino’s rating was 44 percent, lower than the more than 50 percent reported by SWS. Their surveys however detected a similar result: a huge majority vote for Aquino, a result that seldom occurred in the post-Marcos multi-party system installed by the regime of President Corazon Aquino after democracy was restored by the People Power Revolution of 1986.

In Pulse Asia’s survey in August, before Aquino declared his presidential bid, Villar polled 25 percent. This dropped to 19 percent in October.

The latest survey also found that other presidential aspirants who were among the leaders prior to the entry of Aquino experienced a decline in voter preference. Between August and October 2009, the biggest drop in electoral support was experienced by De Castro, who lost 12 percentage points. Estrada declined by 8 percentage points. Escudero gained one percentage point, while Teodoro gained two.

Whether or not Aquino will continue to hold his wide margin as the election approaches is a matter of conjecture. Villar and Aquino’s other rivals have mounted their attacks by raising the following issues: his lack of notable legislative achievements in Congress; the record of the Cojuangco family on agrarian reform in relation to their ownership of Hacienda Luisita in Tarlac; and even the insensitivity of the Aquino administration to social issues. Aquino’s mental qualities have also come under attack. Another criticism is that his credentials for the presidency rest mainly on the public service record of his parents and that he would bring little into the presidency. But all these attacks do not seem to have significantly dented the groundswell of public goodwill he enjoys in the surveys.

The Pulse Asia survey found that the reason most often cited in voting preference for a presidential candidate is his clean public record (“malinis”) or not being corrupt (“hindi kurakot”). The survey found that two out of every 10 Filipinos (21.2 percent) are voting for a particular candidate because he/she is not corrupt, a reason cited by fewer respondents in May and August 2009.

In May 2009, the leading reason for voting was a candidate’s being helpful to others (34 percent), while in August 2009, the top reasons cited were a candidate’s having many accomplishments (25.3 percent) and his/her being pro-poor (20.3 percent). Currently, 14 percent are motivated to vote for a presidential candidate because of his/her many accomplishments, 12.2 percent favor a candidate because he/she helps others, while 6.6 percent mention being helpful to overseas Filipino workers. Villar has built his campaign on the theme of being helpful to overseas Filipino workers for which project he has spent a considerable sum.

The survey also found that the less often mentioned reasons for electing a presidential candidate include the good reputation of his/her family (4.2 percent) and his/her being virtuous or “mabait” (3.7 percent).

These findings suggest a qualitative shift in the values sought by Filipinos in their leaders in this election. These values are highlighted and salient in the issues of integrity and honesty in public service. These values are embodied in the campaign theme: Filipinos crave for a leader whose integrity they can trust. That is the central issue in this election.

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