Iloilo Views | Estrada is damaged goods

Estrada is damaged goods

Posted on May 27th, 2009

Setting aside momentarily the legal issues related to whether or not he is eligible to run for president again in 2010, deposed, convicted (for plunder) and pardoned President Joseph Estrada is persistently trying to play kingmaker in the 2010 election. He has raised his public profile (to the extent of sharing the limelight with boxing champion Manny Pacquiao), converting the run-up to the election into a burlesque in the theater of the absurd.

Estrada has sustained his illusions of making a political comeback with the threat that he would run again for president in 2010 if the opposition fails to unite behind a common candidate. He has identified the terrain on which the presidential battle would be fought: a head-on clash between him and Vice President Noli de Castro for the masa (masses) constituency, which, according to him, would be decisive in determining the outcome of the election.

“Only Noli and I have masa appeal,” Estrada said. “I can feel that he (Noli) also appeals to the D and E sectors.” He noted that the poor comprise 80 and 90 percent of the voters. He claims that only De Castro could rival him in winning the support of the poor. If both he and De Castro faced off for the presidency, he said, “Noli would be a tough candidate to beat … he would be a formidable opponent.”

Estrada is making the point that, since the opposition has not yet found a unifying candidate, then it is obvious, by implication, that it has no other choice than him for a standard bearer to face De Castro.

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Both Estrada and De Castro have a common background as media celebrities—Estrada in the movies and De Castro as a radio news reader and commentator. Estrada was vice president when he ran for president, and De Castro is the incumbent vice president. Like Estrada, De Castro served in the Senate before being elected vice president.

Estrada’s claim that only he and De Castro, among a field of up to nine presidential aspirants, can win the support of the poor as a constituency rests on dubious assumptions. One fragile assumption is that masa politics would be the decisive determinant of the outcome of the next polls, as it was in the 1998 election, which Estrada won with the smashing plurality of nearly 40 percent. Estrada was immensely popular and the front runner in the 1998 campaign.

At this stage of the presidential campaign, with the election a year away, there is scant sign that De Castro is enjoying immense popularity among the masses. The February Pulse Asia survey found the election a “very close race” among four likely candidates: De Castro, Sen. Francis Escudero, Estrada and Sen. Manuel Villar. All four were found by the survey to be running neck-and-neck: De Castro, 19 percent; Escudero, 17 percent; Estrada 16 percent; and Villar 15 percent. No one was breaking away from the pack, including those perceived to be populists or with masa affinities (Estrada and De Castro). The rest of the pack were clustered around the 12 to one-percent voting preference. There is no sign that masa politics is going to figure decisively in the next few months before the election.

The masses are not showing up as a constituency craving either for Estrada or De Castro. This is 2009, not 1998, and the dynamics of the 2010 election are vastly different from those of 1998. Masa politics, or the rich-versus-poor theme, is not the name of the game in 2010.

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Estrada is trying to bring back the 1998 scenario as the template for 2010, but the reason masa politics is not the winning formula this time is that Estrada abused the masa theme with the corruption scandals and the debauchery of his administration.

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Estrada’s excesses did not only lead to his impeachment, the collapse of his government and the plunder charges that came after he was overthrown by Edsa II. The plunder conviction undermined Estrada’s masa slogan, after it was proven during the impeachment trial and the trial in the Sandiganbayan that the poor did not benefit under the short-lived Estrada administration. Only Estrada became rich.

No one, not even De Castro, among the current contenders for the presidency can use the masa theme to help his campaign. Estrada’s performance devalued the masa mantra.

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Another thing debunked by Estrada’s performance was media and show-biz celebrity status as an electoral asset.

In the case of De Castro, there’s no basis for the assumption that he is the man to beat in 2010 because he is claimed to be a man of the masses. He has no chemistry with the masses. There’s no way the masses can identify with him. He can only benefit from dissociating himself from Estrada’s mesmerizing formula of reworking or updating the discredited masa theme.

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We are not even sure if De Castro would be the administration’s presidential candidate. If ever that happens, De Castro would be burdened by a more devastating issue: association with the outgoing administration. That will happen if the lame-duck presidency fails to pull off its scheme to extend its term beyond 2010.

Estrada is not in a position to set the agenda or the strategy of the opposition for 2010. He is damaged political goods after his impeachment and conviction for plunder, even though he was granted executive clemency by his successor in one of the crassest abuses of presidential pardon for political expediency. It’s hard to see how Estrada could ever return to power with the stigma tattooed all over his body.

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2 Responses to “Estrada is damaged goods”

1
May Evangelista
May 27th, 2009 17:00

I know that we all have to make an informed and intelligent decision on who we vote for president. But everytime there is a mention of the chance or even the slimmest chance that Gloria Macapagal Arroyo would be able to extend her term beyond 2010, that just gives me the shivers and I almost feel that I would prefer anyone over GMA. But would I go so far as prefer Joseph Estrada to her? Yes, although I agree with you that he is damaged goods, I would rather have him be president than for GMA to extend her term. But thank heavens we have other choices. Still the overwhelming sentiment is, just ley GMA’s “reign” be over. I hope we can all go beyond that emotional panic and really be able to make a rational choice and a good choice for president. Our country really needs an honest president.
So what about you Mr. Doronilla, will you share with us who you are thinking of voting for president?
2
Filipina Soul » Pinoy Links (5-27-09)
May 28th, 2009 10:47

[...] is this must-read from veteran columnist Armando Doronila on Iloilo Views. Joseph Estrada is, unfortunately, not cured of his hallucination that he can do something good for [...]

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