TIME IS EITHER an enemy or an ally of the embattled government of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. Her elected second government has ruled for four years and three months, and the next presidential election in May 2010 is barely 21 months away.

Although the economy has enjoyed unprecedented growth during the past 30 years, hitting 7.3 percent in 2007, the biggest expansion took place during the past two years, breaking past the 4.6 percent average growth rate in 2001-2006. The downside is that this expansion took place amid the most turbulent period of the Arroyo presidency from 2005 to 2008. That period was marred by at least two attempts to impeach the President in Congress, no less than two military coup attempts (in 2003 during the Oakwood mutiny and only last November at the Peninsula Hotel) and as many people power campaigns to topple the government.

This article does not intend to establish the relationship between economic growth and political turbulence. A recent study by the Asian Development Bank examined the link between corruption and political instability and decline in investment growth. The paper found that governance concerns are one of the “critical constraints to private investment and growth in the Philippines.” The purpose of this article is to address the issue of whether or not the “worst” of the political crisis that has plagued the country since the explosion of the so-called “Hello, Garci” tapes purporting to reveal alleged attempts by the President to cheat during the tabulation of the 2004 presidential election is behind us. Basically the question boils down to this: has “political noise” become less of a force in generating political instability and reached its peak?

This argument was foisted by two of the most rabid supporters of the Arroyo regime. It argues that the closer we get to the election, the more likely that the President will ride out the crisis and serve out her term. The implication is that time is on her side.

One of the important supporters of the President, Armed Forces Chief of Staff Gen. Hermogenes Esperon Jr. has argued that political stability would continue “in the coming months onward to 2009.” He believes the military and police will not join any further destabilizing moves. He assumes immutable solidarity of their support for the government.

However, this assumption flies in the face of the record of military mutinies since the 2003 Oakwood rebellion. There is doubt if this façade of unity will not crack against the pressure of worsening corruption scandals.

More sanguine than Esperon is National Security Adviser Norberto Gonzales, one of the more sycophantic presidential advisers next to Justice Secretary Raul Gonzalez. Not counted among the brightest minds of the Arroyo Cabinet, which is noted for its mediocrity, Gonzales has been quoted as saying, without blushing: “I think we have reached the end, the peak, the peak of scandals, intrigues, everything.”

He put the “peak” of the “political noise” on Feb. 29 during the interfaith rally in Makati City, which he claimed failed to muster a crowd large enough to launch a new people power movement. After this year, he said, “nobody will listen to them [the scandals] any more.”

According to this argument, “people are tired of politics of division and despair.” The problem with this is that there is more than “political noise” in these scandals. There’s some substance behind them. This argument ignores the question, voiced by people outside Malacañang, which Palace insiders do not want to ask or to face: Are people not getting tired of the President? Are they not tired of the proliferation of corruption allegations that multiply rather than diminish as more venalities are uncovered with each day of hearing in Congress on such issues as the National Broadband Network scandal, the sovereignty and “sellout” aspects of the Joint Marine Seismic Undertaking among the Philippines, China and Vietnam?

Exhaustion cuts both ways. The public gets tired of congressional investigations but they get tired, too, of the reproduction of scandals at every congressional investigation. They get tired, too, of being reminded that the economy is performing brilliantly, but they don’t get tired asking what groups or which Palace cronies are benefiting from growth, and why the benefits of growth are not filtering down to the poorer classes.

The Filipino people are getting tired of being told they need to keep the President in office until May 2010 to protect the momentum of economic growth and that therefore keeping her in office is indispensable to growth.

The flaw in this argument is that it evades the issue. What price do we have to pay for this growth that’s taking place at the expense of “governance concerns,” as the ADB report put it? These concerns have been shown to have undermined the growth of foreign investments and GDP.

The argument that people are “tired” of scandals rests on flimsy grounds. On the contrary, there are signs that more people are getting stirred up to go to the streets again; just look at the Feb. 29 rally. Are more and more people not getting tired of President Arroyo rather than of the scandals? How long are they going to tolerate her?

The argument that the worst of the crisis is over is based on wishful thinking. It leads to the delusion that people can endure a few more months of the Arroyo administration as the next election approaches. And the next question is, how long will this delusion hold?

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