THE RECENT NBN-ZTE scandal is just the latest in a long list of scandals besetting President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (GMA).  Indeed, in Hello Garci, she was caught on tape.  And yet she survives.  She has not been impeached nor has she been forced to resign.  In a country with a history of punishing two scandal-ridden presidents, a history celebrated this week, the current president, scandal-ridden, survives. The opposition, in part, is to blame.

In any political battle there are always three sides, not two. Sure, we hear about and focus on the two. We think in terms of pro and con, proponents and opponents, administration and opposition.  But there is always the third side – the sometimes-mushy middle.

The third side consists of the people who haven’t taken one of the two sides.  Sometimes it is out of apathy − it just doesn’t matter.  Sometimes it is out of necessity − I need work and food, not politics.  Sometimes it is out being truly conflicted − I am not sure who is right.  Whichever side, pro or con, wins, the majority of this middle will win the debate. 

So far, GMA has been winning this middle, because, in part, the opposition has over-reached.

The opposition has asked for too much.  They don’t want to merely punish GMA for her corruption. They don’t want to just impeach her or force her to resign.  They want to replace the entire government − to overthrow the Constitution, to install a junta, and then at some point to hold elections.  To those in the middle, the ones that are appalled at GMA’s lawless corruption, overthrowing the law doesn’t seem to be the answer.

Renato Reyes, Bayan’s Secretary General, said, “We can’t just be contented with installing a replacement for Arroyo which might end up as being much worse…People want to have a say in what happens after Arroyo, and not just leave matters to the politicians.”  But the Constitution and the Rule of Law does leave matters to the politicians.  Instead of keeping the debate focused on GMA and her corruption, Bayan has changed the topic and now we are debating overthrowing the Constitution.  And they are not the only ones.

Coup-plotter Antonio Trillanes is another.  While under oath to uphold the law, this senator walked away from court and tried to overthrow the Constitution.  During the Peninsula Putsch, some in the opposition flocked to his side.  Many more supported him from a safe distance.  The rest of the country ended up being, de facto, pro-GMA.  Some defended GMA outright but the majority just defended the Constitution and found themselves, reluctantly, pro-GMA.  Against Sen. Trillanes’s coup, the third side choose the Constitution and GMA.

This surprised some.  Antonio Trillanes was elected senator.  Millions of Filipinos flocked to his side just a few months before.  Surely, they voted knowing that he supported overthrowing not just the administration but the entire government.  Surely they supported that cause, too.  But they didn’t.  This is the third side in action.  They voted for Sen. Trillanes because they didn’t like GMA and wanted to see her punished for her scandals.  But the third side supports the Rule of Law and the Constitution and opposes coups, and so opposed the good Senator’s too.

This third side has been picked up by the surveys of the Social Weather Station.  In one following GMA’s declaration of a state of emergency in February 2006, SWS found that one third supported a military coup, one third opposed, and one third took no side.  There are the three sides − pro, con, neither − equally matched.

Further evidence can be seen in the statements from the Catholic Church, the various Makati business groups and other parts of middle-class civil society.  They speak the same two-step: one, we support the fight against corruption, but, two, it must occur under the Rule of Law and the Constitution.  That’s non-negotiable.  On the one hand, we oppose GMA, but more important is our support for the Constitution and the Rule of Law.

However, despite their screw-ups to date, the opposition still has a chance to succeed. They just need to change the argument. 

Up to now, it has been a question of GMA and the Constitution on one side, versus her ouster and a junta on the other.  Now, they should make it GMA versus the Constitution.  Up to now, they have been helping GMA by putting her on the side of the law and stability.  Now, they should put her on the side of the law-breakers.  She and Erap, together forever.  Erap the Plunderer and GMA the Corrupt.  One the convicted criminal, the other his pardoner.

To succeed in changing the debate will require the marginalization and isolation of the pro-coup opposition.  The mainstream pro-Constitution opposition must distance themselves from Sen. Trillanes and those advocating for a dictatorship.  They must make this simple argument: if Erap was impeached and forced to resign because of corruption, then GMA should be forced to resign.  And if Noli de Castro or any other future president is caught with their hand in the cookie jar, then they too should be removed from office.  That is the Rule of Law. That is what the spirit of the Constitution demands and the letter of the Constitution allows.  That is what Progress requires.

This may not be fun.  It may not be nice and clean.   But progress is always slow, incremental, and messy.  It takes generations. 

There are some that are pedaling a magic potion; that talk about a mystical creature, the unicorn of politics; that saintly all-powerful leader that will swoop down and save the country.  John Wayne arriving in the nick of time, leading the calvary.  That is a fantasy.  Humanity has tried such and it only led to Hitler, Lenin, Mao, and all the other brutal dictators of history. 

Human beings are not perfect and so our leaders and governments are not perfect.  All we can do is punish those who have been caught, on tape and elsewhere.  That is the Rule of Law.  GMA has been caught.  She should be removed.  It is to the determent of the Philippines that part of the opposition continues to attempt to do more.  They should stay focused on the issue − GMA − and stop trying to use her corruption to overthrow the Constitution.

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