In the first opinion poll taken after the withdrawal from the 2010 presidential race of Sen. Mar Roxas on Sept. 1, Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III surged ahead to a 51 percent lead against his prospective rivals, throwing into disarray the entire frame of the derby. The surge shell-shocked, marginalized and brusquely swept aside the previous front-runners in the race.

In the Social Weather Stations poll taken on Sept. 5 to 6 in the strategic Dagupan-Lucena corridor, from Central to Southern Luzon, home to 40 percent of registered voters, Aquino cut the ratings of Sen. Manuel Villar to a measly 14 percent, convicted former President Joseph Estrada to 13 percent, Sen. Francis Escudero to 12 percent, and Vice President Noli de Castro to 7 percent. The survey was made in the National Capital Region, Pangasinan, Region 3 (Central Luzon) and Region 4-A (portions of Southern Tagalog).

Although the poll reflected sentiment only in the Dagupan-Lucena corridor, the results reflected a strong undercurrent of preference of Aquino if election had been held in early September. The results shattered the early confidence of Villar and caught him reeling, reducing him to saying people should wait until the nationwide poll results, due at the end of the month, are known.

There were indications in the early results of a deep undercurrent of support for Aquino—and a tendency toward a landslide, if the early results are sustained nationwide in the next few months. The poll was taken a day after Roxas’ withdrawal but a week before Aquino announced that he would run for president.

The results also revealed the presidential-vice presidential tandem preferences of the voters. The respondents said they favored an Aquino-Roxas team, 51 percent (the same percentage they gave for Aquino), Estrada-Loren Legarda, 12 percent; Villar-Kiko Pangilinan, 11 percent, Escudero-Jejomar Binay, 9 percent; and De Castro-Ronnie Puno, 4 percent.

The results prompted a reshuffling of the team-ups, and left most likely a combination of Aquino and Roxas for the Liberal Party. Aquino has asked Roxas to be his vice president running mate, but Roxas has not yet announced his decision.

The results showed that Aquino and Roxas would support each other in the same ticket. Villar is uncertain up until now as to whom he would choose as his running mate, reflecting the confusion sowed by the early results on both the government and opposition camps. On the administration side, the immediate impact of the survey results was that De Castro has informed the administration Lakas-Kampi-CMD alliance that he would not run for president under its banner. The merger of administration parties is likely to settle for Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro, who did not show impressive ratings in the previous opinion polls. It remains to be seen how Teodoro would rate in the next survey and whether or not Aquino’s surge has sidelined Teodoro farther.

Aquino claims that the early SWS poll results were confirmed by similar results in eight other separate surveys. He interpreted the results as an indication that “people want change.”

From my own point of view, the survey results reflect the deep and broad resonance of the issue of clean and honest governance that highlights Aquino’s campaign theme. The groundswell of support for Aquino following the death of his mother, President Cory Aquino, flows from the public service record of his mother and his father, the martyred former Sen. Benigno Aquino whose honesty and transparency appear to have been accepted by the Filipino public.

The transparency and honesty issue appears to have gained ground as the central issue of the 2009 election. It is driving the Aquino campaign, although no presidential aspirant can claim ownership of the issue.

As a result of the latest survey, Villar has to revise his issues and present a more grabbing theme than his old motif of his having risen from rags to riches and his having helped overseas Filipino workers.

The survey results appear to have damaged the chances of Estrada, even as Sen. Panfilo Lacson stepped up his accusations against his former boss. In a privilege speech, Lacson accused Estrada of having bullied businessman Alfonso Yuchengco into selling his stake in the Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co. to Manuel V. Pangilinan. The senator also said Estrada may have something to do with the murder in 2000 publicist Salvador “Bubby” Dacer. Lacson also said the former president had intervened for the release of smuggled chicken and rice during his administration, and allowed jueteng operations to flourish.

While some of charges are old hat, since they were dealt with in his impeachment and plunder trial, these new accusations impair Estrada’s credentials to act as a unifying agent of the fractured opposition parties and also damaged his moral authority.

It is now clear that honesty and transparency in governance have become the defining and overarching issue in this election camping. This has crystallized in the early poll surveys. Villar and the rest of the field have to reinvent their campaign themes.

One Response to “Transparency now a defining issue in campaign”

• 1
  danny salvador
  September 17th, 2009 15:04

  I smell something fishy about this survey. All previous surveys were done nationwide. Why all of a sudden they decided to sample only the Dagupan-Lucena corridor? What is the basis in choosing this place? Who commissioned the survey?

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