Twin disasters: The next task
Posted on October 26th, 2009
IN my previous column I answered the question why the government response to the twin disasters, typhoons Ondoy and Pepeng, was disappointing.
I hope the lessons were learned, and that we would be more prepared when the next heavy rains or destructive winds come. Experts say that we can expect more destructive typhoons and other calamities because of climate change and global warming.
This time, I will talk about what the government should have done as soon as Ondoy and Pepeng left.
The twin disasters stressed the importance of decisive leadership—and the lack of it—when the floods buried or washed away homes and their occupants.
This is one example of why leadership and managerial ability are important in a crisis situation like this.
Seven days ago the death toll from Ondoy and Pepeng stood at 858—420 from Ondoy and 438 from Pepeng. But the final tally may breach 1,000. Many people are still missing, and more than 100 have died from leptospirosis, the most deadly disease caused by the floodwaters.
A week ago government statistics showed that Tropical Storm Ondoy, which struck on September 26, affected an estimated 4.35 million people. About 189,000 people remain in evacuation centers.
Typhoon Pepeng, which hit northern Luzon on October 3 and lingered as a tropical storm for a week, affected another 4.16 million people, including more than 32,000 who remained in evacuation centers.
Damage to agriculture and infrastructure has been estimated at more than P20 billion. The final figure will also likely rise when a more accurate assessment is completed. An indication of the extent of damage is the government’s announcement that it would borrow as much as P50 billion from the bond market.
The government’s economic managers, in a recent briefing for diplomats and businessmen, said the twin disasters would not affect their growth projections, and that the country’s gross domestic product would still reach the high end of the 0.8-percent to 1.8-percent growth target this year.
I think the typhoons’ impact was more social, and the economic impact is limited to areas visited by the disasters. Most of us saw what happened to the thousands of hectares of rice fields that were destroyed by the floods. Agriculture Secretary Arthur Yap said in an economic briefing on October 14 that the farmers in the typhoon-affected areas were “in a state of financial ruin.”
The distribution of food, groceries, water and other basic items to the typhoon victims answers the most immediate need, and should tide them over for a few days, or even a few weeks, for families still housed in evacuation centers.
But the farmers in Central and Northern Luzon, who lost their crops, their livelihood, need more than a daily ration of groceries. Relief goods are only for the short term. These farmers must survive not only until they are able to plant again, but until they harvest what has not even been planted yet. The floods destroyed not only their crops, but their ability to repay the debts they incurred to buy fertilizers and pesticides.
These farmers need outright grants, not loans. They have no capacity to pay. They need cash, but not the usual conditional cash transfers, because they may not be able to comply with the requirements attached to the money. It should be a really meaningful safety net that will allow them to buy what they need until they get back on their feet.
At the same time, the government should now be drawing up the mechanics on how to help those farmers plant again, when the floodwaters recede. The old feudal system of buying fertilizers, pesticides and seeds on credit will only keep them in debt. This time, the inputs should be subsidized, even totally, at least for the first post-typhoon crop.
The typhoons and floods destroyed billions-worth of roads and bridges, including vital arteries for trade. As I said before, the damage to infrastructure has been estimated at more than P20 billion. Unfortunately, I still have to see massive infrastructure work being done, while I read reports about plans to raise funds for damage repair.
Infrastructure is one of the major programs that receive appropriations through the national budget. We are still a quarter away from the end of the fiscal year, and I don’t believe we have spent all the money appropriated for infrastructure projects.
Infrastructure repairs must be bid out very quickly so actual work can be done as soon as possible. Contractors that win the bids should be persuaded to move fast.
This is not only to put roads and bridges back to usable state; this will also reduce the frustration and hopelessness that people feel because of the disasters.
When they see the government moving quickly to put everything back to normal, they will see a responsive government. Because the government is the prime mover, people will have more confidence, they will be able to rise up again and return to normal lives.
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